Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210627 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.30    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    182.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.5  70.1  74.1  78.2  92.1  86.5  51.6  36.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.2  19.0  14.5  15.6  10.9   7.7   5.7   6.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  71.0  18.0  66.0 -10.0 -45.0 -41.0 -11.0  F  N  U  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  60.0  57.0  46.0  54.0  68.0  72.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  59.0  48.0  30.0  11.0 -38.0-101.0 -77.0 -56.0 VU VU VU  U VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons