Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072021 210705 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  26.1  29.8  27.6  32.9  32.9  32.9  32.9  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  49.0  41.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 129.6  80.8  86.5  86.5  86.5  86.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  20.0   6.0   4.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        4.3%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       12.1%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.8%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.8%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        8.9%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%