Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072021 210705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  36.6  34.5  35.2  40.2  40.2  40.2  40.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  32.0  14.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 129.6  94.3  79.4  79.4  79.4  79.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   6.0  20.0  35.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   1.0  -7.0 -11.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0  F  N  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%