Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072021 210706 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  37.1  37.1  37.1  37.1  37.1  37.1  37.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        137.0 137.0 137.0 137.0 137.0 137.0 137.0 137.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%