Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210716 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  25.1  24.6  29.6  24.6  30.6  25.1  24.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  88.0  70.0  49.0  26.0  16.0  22.0  32.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  71.0  73.0  60.0  66.0  77.0  87.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  74.0  69.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  22.0  28.0  35.0  44.0  48.0  38.0  29.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.2%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       27.6%       19.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        9.9%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        9.9%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        7.9%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       37.0%       21.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%       15.9%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.6%       16.0%       14.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        7.2%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       17.2%       13.2%       15.2%