Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210717 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    133.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  23.4  24.0  20.9  24.0  24.9  30.3  32.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  42.0  32.0  24.0  16.0  21.0  31.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  60.0  57.0  89.0  75.0 105.0  51.0  57.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  28.0  34.0  31.0  26.0  26.0  49.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.0%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%       24.6%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        9.1%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        9.1%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        9.1%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%       31.7%       19.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%       12.4%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.1%       16.3%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        6.7%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h       12.1%        8.5%       10.3%