Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210717 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  23.7  21.2  22.9  27.8  29.4  30.6  38.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  66.0  60.0  59.0  51.0  48.0  40.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  56.0  89.0  65.0  82.0  88.0  41.0  67.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  34.0  32.0  28.0  33.0  16.0  20.0  -2.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.2%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       27.7%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%       10.0%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       10.0%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       10.0%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       32.9%       21.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%       12.4%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       17.2%       17.8%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        7.3%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h       18.5%       10.7%       14.6%