Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  18.7  21.2  17.8  12.4  17.0  14.7  17.9  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  30.0  35.0  34.0  22.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  84.0  87.0  74.0 108.0  63.0  85.0  15.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       16.5%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.5%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        5.5%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        5.5%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       28.4%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       10.0%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h       23.1%       23.0%       23.1%
 70kt / 48h       11.7%       14.1%       12.9%
 65kt / 72h       39.5%       33.3%       36.4%