Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210718 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    132.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  29.1  25.5  19.1  24.4  19.4  28.1  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  25.0  27.0  35.0  36.0  34.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  34.0  58.0  79.0  39.0  31.0  11.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  16.0  24.0  17.0  29.0  30.0  58.0  58.0 VU  U VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.7%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       17.6%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        6.4%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        6.4%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.4%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       22.5%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        7.3%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%       13.1%       10.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        4.8%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h       10.0%        6.1%        8.0%