Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210718 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    132.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  25.0  18.6  19.9  20.2  23.6  22.8  32.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  43.0  49.0  43.0  44.0  52.0  58.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  58.0  79.0 116.0   8.0  47.0  11.0  47.0  N  N  N  F  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  68.0  64.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  24.0  20.0  15.0  27.0  36.0  39.0  31.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       23.1%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        9.0%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        9.0%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        9.0%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%       26.8%       17.9%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       10.1%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h       14.4%       16.1%       15.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%        6.1%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h       18.7%        9.5%       14.1%