Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210718 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    132.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  16.5  20.1  22.8  14.3  21.9  16.5  18.6  N  F  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  30.0  34.0  38.0  38.0  33.0  29.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  87.0  67.0  43.0  66.0  39.0  61.0  37.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  69.0  74.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0   7.0   8.0   7.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        4.0%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.4%       28.2%       19.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       14.2%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       14.2%        9.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       14.1%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h       12.4%       34.5%       23.4%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%       15.8%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       15.3%       21.7%       18.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%       11.2%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h       11.5%       22.7%       17.1%