Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210718 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  20.9  22.2  15.5  18.2  17.2  20.2  19.7  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  41.0  46.0  45.0  40.0  49.0  57.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  67.0  43.0  21.0  25.0  40.0  61.0  44.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   7.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        6.0%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       17.5%       37.5%       27.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%       21.3%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       21.3%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       21.2%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%       42.4%       29.4%
 55kt / 36h        9.0%       22.1%       15.5%
 55kt / 48h       22.4%       29.1%       25.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%       17.4%       13.2%
 65kt / 72h       28.5%       34.4%       31.4%