Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210719 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.8  16.2  15.4  24.6  24.2  29.2  26.5  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  32.0  35.0  36.0  37.0  35.0  33.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  65.0  45.0  36.0  22.0  53.0  34.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  68.0  74.0  72.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0 -10.0 -13.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.5%       12.8%       12.7%
 25kt / 24h       35.1%       54.7%       44.9%
 30kt / 24h       23.5%       45.9%       34.7%
 35kt / 24h       21.2%       45.9%       33.6%
 40kt / 24h        9.1%       45.9%       27.5%
 45kt / 36h       23.9%       45.8%       34.8%
 55kt / 36h       13.0%       26.2%       19.6%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       29.2%       23.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%       17.5%       11.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%       17.1%       11.1%