Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210719 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  17.2  15.5  20.6  19.4  23.6  30.4  30.4  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  40.0  39.0  43.0  54.0  59.0  64.0  72.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  44.0  36.0  35.0  40.0  44.0  -6.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  73.0  68.0  63.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0 -18.0 -29.0  N  N  F  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        3.3%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       21.7%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%       12.6%        9.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       12.6%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       12.6%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%       14.5%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%        4.8%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.5%       12.7%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        4.4%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        9.3%        9.9%