Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210719 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  12.8  21.4  20.8  15.4  13.8  12.2  21.6  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  34.0  37.0  35.0  32.0  38.0  62.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  39.0  58.0  42.0  64.0  18.0 -23.0 -39.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   2.0 -10.0 -29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        7.0%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.0%       27.4%       21.2%
 30kt / 24h       12.3%       20.7%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       20.7%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       20.7%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h       17.9%       21.0%       19.5%
 55kt / 36h        8.9%        8.4%        8.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.3%       19.7%       17.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        6.7%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.3%       14.9%       13.1%