Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210720 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  11.2   9.6   9.0  15.6  17.0  24.0  27.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  67.0  74.0  74.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  49.0  48.0  30.0   0.0   1.0  20.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   6.0   0.0  -2.0 -11.0  -6.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       63.6%       50.9%       57.3%
 25kt / 24h       79.8%       88.6%       84.2%
 30kt / 24h       79.8%       88.6%       84.2%
 35kt / 24h       78.4%       88.6%       83.5%
 40kt / 24h       66.8%       88.6%       77.7%
 45kt / 36h       60.8%       64.1%       62.4%
 55kt / 36h       40.9%       50.2%       45.6%
 55kt / 48h       40.2%       56.0%       48.1%
 70kt / 48h       18.1%       26.0%       22.1%
 65kt / 72h       17.1%       24.7%       20.9%