Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  11.0  10.2  14.8  10.7  17.5  12.8  19.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  36.0  40.0  49.0  78.0  89.0  62.0  23.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  38.0   6.0  32.0 -22.0  24.0 -12.0  77.0  N  N  U  N VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  75.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0 -27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       73.5%       51.4%       62.5%
 25kt / 24h       75.5%       76.0%       75.8%
 30kt / 24h       75.5%       76.0%       75.8%
 35kt / 24h       75.5%       76.0%       75.8%
 40kt / 24h       48.8%       75.6%       62.2%
 45kt / 36h       85.3%       61.8%       73.5%
 55kt / 36h       36.6%       52.7%       44.7%
 55kt / 48h       30.3%       27.6%       28.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%