Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  10.7  12.8  13.5  17.8  15.2  19.9  23.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  72.0  69.0  63.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0   6.0  32.0  -8.0   8.0  12.0  55.0  83.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   8.0  -1.0   5.0 -22.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.7%       38.8%       44.3%
 25kt / 24h       59.7%       64.1%       61.9%
 30kt / 24h       59.7%       64.1%       61.9%
 35kt / 24h       59.7%       64.1%       61.9%
 40kt / 24h       19.3%       60.4%       39.9%
 45kt / 36h       71.7%       45.7%       58.7%
 55kt / 36h       27.1%       33.5%       30.3%
 55kt / 48h       25.3%       22.3%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%