Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210721 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  16.7  15.8  14.3  17.9  14.1  22.6  30.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  43.0  48.0  55.0  62.0  57.0  27.0  17.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  22.0   2.0 -45.0   2.0   8.0  82.0  21.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  72.0  70.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  10.0 -22.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%        8.2%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       12.7%       18.4%       15.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.7%       13.8%       13.3%
 35kt / 24h       12.7%       13.8%       13.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       13.5%        8.4%
 45kt / 36h       34.9%        8.1%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.2%        3.2%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        4.8%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%