Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  19.2  14.3  16.9  19.3  24.6  20.0  24.1  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  67.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  50.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   2.0 -45.0 -18.0   3.0  47.0  83.0  57.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  66.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  76.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 -13.0   0.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        8.0%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       15.2%       22.9%       19.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.9%       18.7%       15.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.9%       18.7%       15.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       15.1%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h       29.2%        9.0%       19.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.8%        3.4%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%        7.0%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%