Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  17.4  20.8  17.1   8.4  12.4  16.0  13.5  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  57.0  61.0  65.0  62.0  44.0  20.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0 -18.0   8.0  30.0   3.0  66.0  35.0  31.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0  12.0   2.0   5.0  13.0  11.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        5.0%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       15.1%       12.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%       10.9%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.8%       10.9%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        9.1%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h       26.2%        7.4%       16.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%        2.7%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%        7.2%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%