Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  20.2  16.9  13.6  15.2  13.5  11.8  18.5  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  56.0  34.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0   8.0  30.0  16.0  43.0  35.0  52.0 -13.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  11.0   2.0   2.0  15.0   2.0   1.0  -3.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        7.6%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h       19.0%       26.4%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h       17.3%       22.0%       19.7%
 35kt / 24h       17.3%       22.0%       19.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       18.8%       10.5%
 45kt / 36h       29.2%       12.3%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        7.8%        4.9%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.7%       14.5%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%        5.6%        7.8%