Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  16.4  12.8  10.5  11.6  20.6  20.8  20.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  42.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  26.0   8.0 -18.0  10.0  -6.0   6.0 -38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   4.0   3.0  11.0  32.0  10.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%        8.8%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       19.9%       30.3%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h       19.8%       27.3%       23.5%
 35kt / 24h       19.8%       27.3%       23.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       24.8%       13.6%
 45kt / 36h       27.5%       12.5%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        7.1%        5.2%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%       11.1%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%