Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  11.5  10.5  15.3  11.9  18.3  20.9  23.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  40.0  39.0  23.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  77.3  62.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0   8.0 -18.0  11.0  -4.0   2.0 -13.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   3.0  14.0   7.0  22.0   1.0  16.0  N  N  N  U  N VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        8.3%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.7%       28.2%       24.4%
 30kt / 24h       20.7%       24.2%       22.5%
 35kt / 24h       20.7%       24.2%       22.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       24.2%       13.6%
 45kt / 36h       26.4%       11.1%       18.7%
 55kt / 36h        9.8%        4.2%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h       12.2%       12.4%       12.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        1.6%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.8%        1.6%