Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  15.7  13.2  18.5  25.2  28.0  34.5  35.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  65.0  58.0  46.0  40.0  38.0  20.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  84.3  70.7  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0  12.0  49.0  42.0  15.0   8.0 -13.0  19.0 VU  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  19.0  -1.0  -7.0 -22.0 -25.0 -28.0 -52.0  N VU  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.9%       17.9%       18.4%
 25kt / 24h       35.8%       42.5%       39.2%
 30kt / 24h       35.8%       40.4%       38.1%
 35kt / 24h       35.8%       40.4%       38.1%
 40kt / 24h        6.5%       40.4%       23.5%
 45kt / 36h       25.7%       13.8%       19.7%
 55kt / 36h        9.1%        5.6%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        9.8%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%