Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  12.6  17.6  21.4  27.3  31.4  29.6  35.3  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  36.0  23.0  16.0  13.0  10.0  12.0  15.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  78.6  70.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  49.0  42.0 -12.0   5.0 -31.0   7.0 -19.0  U  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  76.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0   0.0  -4.0  -9.0 -32.0 -38.0 -28.0 -51.0 VU  N  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%        7.5%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.4%       22.3%       17.4%
 30kt / 24h       12.4%       19.0%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h       12.4%       19.0%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       19.0%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%        5.4%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        1.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        4.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%