Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  17.4  21.9  15.1  18.3  21.2  15.4  16.1  F  F  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  43.0  35.0  39.0  22.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  95.1  71.2  53.6  41.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  57.0  24.0   3.0  19.0  -2.0   2.0  -7.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  11.0  15.0  -2.0 -14.0 -14.0 -19.0  -9.0  F  U  U  N VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       15.4%       10.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        9.4%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        9.4%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        8.2%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        5.6%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        4.6%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%