Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  21.2  19.5  17.8  19.8  20.1  22.8  17.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  14.0  13.0  10.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  75.5  61.0  48.6  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  47.0  18.0  48.0 -23.0  10.0  -2.0  15.0  N  N  U  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0 -14.0 -11.0 -18.0 -24.0 -37.0 -25.0  N  N VF  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.7%       15.1%       14.9%
 25kt / 24h       30.5%       46.8%       38.6%
 30kt / 24h       29.3%       42.8%       36.0%
 35kt / 24h       29.3%       42.8%       36.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%       42.1%       23.8%
 45kt / 36h       12.1%       21.7%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%        9.9%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        6.8%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        3.8%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%