Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.1  17.8  17.5  21.6  22.2  17.8  20.2  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  35.0  35.0  23.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  97.0  92.3  73.5  54.6  37.9  26.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  18.0  47.0  18.0 -27.0  32.0   0.0  30.0  N  U  N  U VU  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0 -13.0 -11.0 -18.0 -15.0 -35.0 -21.0 -21.0  N VF  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%       10.3%        9.8%
 25kt / 24h       24.2%       39.2%       31.7%
 30kt / 24h       22.2%       34.1%       28.2%
 35kt / 24h       22.2%       34.1%       28.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       30.6%       16.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       13.8%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        5.5%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        4.7%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%