Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  18.1  20.6  25.9  17.6  22.4  19.3  25.3  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0  94.6  92.3  75.5  54.6  37.9  30.9  24.7  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   7.0  20.0   1.0  -7.0 -37.0  19.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -2.0 -10.0 -16.0 -16.0 -21.0 -28.0 -26.0  F  N  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        4.5%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       11.6%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%        7.3%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%        7.3%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.0%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.4%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%