Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.1  22.4  21.5  21.3  19.1  26.5  28.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  74.6  71.5  68.6  64.4  67.2  74.6  79.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  22.0 -17.0   7.0  51.0   7.0  29.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -8.0 -11.0 -13.0  -8.0   1.0   0.0   6.0  F  F  F VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons