Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  21.5  19.8  17.3  25.8  24.3  32.9  29.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  30.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         86.5  88.0  89.6  91.1  96.0  99.4  97.7 135.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  46.0  41.0   0.0  55.0  31.0  12.0  26.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  71.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   6.0   6.0  11.0  17.0  11.0   3.0 -16.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons