Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.60    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  27.9  22.7  30.2  33.5  31.2  32.8  36.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  48.0   6.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  88.0  88.0  89.6 114.4 118.6 106.6 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  22.0   6.0 -14.0  12.0  51.0  34.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   9.0   4.0   4.0 -10.0 -13.0  -4.0  U  U  U  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons