Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.30    117.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    162.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  24.6  30.2  35.7  28.9  34.3  32.6  42.4  N  N  N  U  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  35.0  20.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  72.0  69.8  68.8  90.0 104.4  99.3  72.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   5.0 -14.0  25.0   8.0  39.0  35.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   4.0   3.0  -9.0   0.0 -13.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  F  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons