Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092021 210728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.50    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    164.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  30.8  35.5  30.2  33.4  34.6  43.4  62.9  N  U  U  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.0  68.8  67.7  76.7 101.0 102.7  66.7  60.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  -3.0  35.0   8.0  46.0   9.0  53.0  51.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  55.0  60.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  -4.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons