Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210718 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  10.3  11.7  11.4   9.6  13.2  11.2  17.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  31.0  35.0  42.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  58.0  42.0  26.0  29.0   5.0  12.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%       15.9%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       36.8%       67.0%       51.9%
 30kt / 24h       21.3%       53.8%       37.6%
 35kt / 24h       17.8%       53.8%       35.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       53.2%       29.5%
 45kt / 36h       32.3%       78.9%       55.6%
 55kt / 36h       24.0%       68.1%       46.1%
 55kt / 48h       43.2%       61.6%       52.4%
 70kt / 48h       21.3%       59.6%       40.4%
 65kt / 72h       24.5%       66.9%       45.7%