Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210719 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3   9.5  10.0  10.6  10.7  15.5  14.7  23.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  45.0  47.0  35.0  34.0  34.0  38.0  41.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  39.0  22.0   9.0  11.0  39.0  30.0  45.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  83.0  81.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.2%       29.2%       26.2%
 25kt / 24h       50.8%       73.9%       62.3%
 30kt / 24h       41.5%       71.1%       56.3%
 35kt / 24h       41.5%       71.1%       56.3%
 40kt / 24h       15.8%       71.1%       43.4%
 45kt / 36h       40.1%       76.7%       58.4%
 55kt / 36h       31.0%       66.7%       48.9%
 55kt / 48h       36.5%       56.8%       46.7%
 70kt / 48h       17.0%       50.8%       33.9%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%       50.1%       30.3%