Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  18.3  24.0  28.6  29.1  43.2  39.9  43.3  N  F  N  N  N VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  36.0  46.0  50.0  71.0  95.0  95.0  58.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  31.0  19.0   0.0  38.0  35.0  54.0  10.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   2.0   7.0   9.0  33.0  36.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%        0.2%        3.2%