Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  23.2  28.6  30.2  36.0  38.5  44.3  39.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   3.0  16.0  29.0  38.0  34.0  34.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.0  94.6 109.8 134.6 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  19.0   0.0  59.0  43.0  71.0  18.0   1.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  73.0  67.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   7.0  15.0  14.0  32.0  34.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons