Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210721 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  26.7  26.6  28.0  42.1  38.5  45.0  32.9  N  N  N  N VU  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0  13.0  25.0  70.0  80.0  86.0 103.0 103.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]         93.0 102.7 127.9 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  15.0  39.0  56.0  39.0  31.0  25.0  27.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   9.0  10.0  26.0  30.0  38.0  27.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        1.2%        3.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons