Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  26.7  36.9  34.7  42.1  40.2  24.8  29.7  N  N  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  10.0  12.0  23.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  96.1 111.6 130.1 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  40.0  54.0  79.0  57.0  37.0 -14.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  68.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0  18.0  21.0  36.0  54.0  18.0  19.0  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons