Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  36.7  33.6  42.0  42.0  30.3  32.3  35.4  U  U  U VU VU  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  31.0  28.0  20.0  27.0  30.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  89.0 105.0  71.0  43.0   1.0  32.0   9.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  76.0  71.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  21.0  21.0  35.0  60.0  26.0  18.0   5.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%