Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  32.0  36.0  38.8  29.7  29.8  36.7  49.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  81.0  96.0 103.0 102.0 101.0  74.0  22.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  78.0  64.0  63.0  55.0  11.0  25.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  72.0  70.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  19.0  26.0  36.0  32.0  22.0  14.0  11.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       13.4%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.8%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       20.9%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.2%       10.2%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        4.2%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.7%        7.0%        8.8%