Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  39.2  42.3  37.7  31.5  36.4  38.3  48.8  U  U VU  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  29.0  28.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 117.4  96.1 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  19.0  49.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  27.0  37.0  49.0  29.0  22.0  12.0  10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%