Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  39.7  34.5  38.8  29.1  34.7  41.3  41.8  U  U  U  U  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  97.0  96.0  53.0  32.0  N  U  U  U  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0  98.0 101.1 101.1 145.0 145.0 139.6 145.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  67.0  81.0  74.0  35.0   1.0  43.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  14.0  13.0  10.0   4.0   6.0   5.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.4%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        1.2%        1.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons