Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.6  38.2  35.7  38.8  35.5  36.0  47.4  48.5  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0   0.0   8.0   9.0  26.0  37.0  41.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 144.3 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  74.0  77.0  58.0  23.0 -14.0 -26.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  52.0  54.0  46.0  35.0  35.0  25.0  17.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%