Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102021 210724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  30.0  28.3  31.0  34.8  42.6  43.8  36.3  U  N  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  95.0 100.0  97.0  26.0  28.0  27.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 142.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  71.0  42.0  38.0  27.0 -20.0  15.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  74.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  47.0  42.0  28.0  31.0  28.0  23.0  25.0  14.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        7.4%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        9.0%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.4%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        1.6%        2.3%