Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    149.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  40.7  40.4  35.1  49.4  53.6  26.8  17.6  U VU  U  U VU VU  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  32.0  31.0  29.0  18.0   6.0  16.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 103.5 111.5 113.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  82.0 120.0 142.0 102.0 106.0  43.0  37.0  F  N  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  55.0  49.0  38.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  10.0   3.0   8.0  11.0  22.0  18.0 -10.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.3%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        9.2%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.3%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        5.4%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        1.0%        1.6%