Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  41.1  45.8  49.8  34.9  41.0  34.5  33.3  U VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  22.0  16.0  14.0   5.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 124.6 120.1 107.4  98.0  56.7  57.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 121.0  95.0  76.0  86.0  30.0 -11.0  23.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  67.0  61.0  51.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -3.0  11.0  17.0  55.0  71.0  -8.0 -69.0 VF  N  U  U VU VU  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%