Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  44.3  47.6  46.7  48.6  34.5  42.1  27.2  U VU VU VU VU  U VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0   9.0   5.0   2.0   7.0  22.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 127.0 120.1 115.7  99.8 107.4  96.2  55.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0 104.0  61.0  65.0  59.0  65.0 -20.0  14.0  F  F  N  N  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  54.0  45.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0  43.0  55.0  76.0  62.0  11.0 -60.0  U  N VU VU VU VU  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%